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dc.creatorPaniagua Molina, Hernán Javier
dc.creatorSolórzano Thompson, Johanna
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-12T21:59:44Z
dc.date.available2021-02-12T21:59:44Z
dc.date.issued2020-09-01
dc.identifier.citationhttps://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/agromeso/article/view/40349es_ES
dc.identifier.issn2215-3608
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10669/82836
dc.descriptionPublicación relacionada con el proyecto 822-B5-A15 Valoración de activos físicos y agronegocios en el medio rural.es_ES
dc.description.abstractIntroduction. Palm cultivation allows oil to be obtained for human and industrial consumption. Some of its development has been achieved through associations of agricultural producers, who have had access to financing to build industrial plants for oil extraction and refinement, which is of great importance to the economy developing countries. Objective. To demonstrate how strategic and risk management influence the profitability and value of the small palm oil industrializer business. Materials and methods. Financial, technical, market, and production indicators were used in a price forecast model. The Monte Carlo simulation method was performed and a time series model was fitted to forecast the international price of palm oil. Subsequently, a univariate structural econometric model was adjusted to forecast revenue based on international price and other variables. Finally, a parameterized cash flow was developed that incorporated the results of the previous models to estimate the value of the business. Results. The international oil price forecast showed high volatility that directly affected the organization’s revenue forecasts and conveyed its effect to cash flows. The value of the business and equity was negative, and in the face of debt restructuring scenarios and the elimination of unproductive assets, they improved considerably. Conclusion. Low-diversified palm oil production companies had a high exposure to changes in international prices which, together with high levels of debt for fixed asset investments with long recovery periods, affect their cash flow, the value of the company, and its assets.es_ES
dc.language.isoen_USes_ES
dc.sourceAgronomía Mesoamericana 31(3):619-633es_ES
dc.subjectRisk analysises_ES
dc.subjectRisk managementes_ES
dc.subjectBusiness Valuationes_ES
dc.subjectOil palmes_ES
dc.subjectAnálisis de riesgoes_ES
dc.subjectGestión del riesgoes_ES
dc.subjectPalma aceiteraes_ES
dc.subjectStrategic foresightes_ES
dc.subjectProspectiva estratégicaes_ES
dc.titleImproving strategic management through risk analysis: small palm (Elaeis guineensis) oil industrializers, Central Americaes_ES
dc.typeartículo científicoes_ES
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.15517/am.v31i3.40349
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Agroalimentarias::Centro de Investigación en Economía Agrícola y Desarrollo Agroempresarial (CIEDA)es_ES
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Agroalimentarias::Facultad de Ciencias Agroalimentarias::Escuela de Economía Agrícola y Agronegocioses_ES
dc.identifier.codproyecto822-B5-A15


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