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dc.creatorPascale, Salvatore
dc.creatorKapnick, Sarah B.
dc.creatorDelworth, Thomas L.
dc.creatorHidalgo León, Hugo G.
dc.creatorCooke, William F.
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-24T20:00:18Z
dc.date.available2021-11-24T20:00:18Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.citationhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03228-4
dc.identifier.issn1573-1480
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10669/85332
dc.description.abstractThe recent multi-year 2015–2019 drought after a multi-decadal drying trend over Central America raises the question of whether anthropogenic climate change (ACC) played a role in exacerbating these events. While the occurrence of the 2015–2019 drought in Central America has been asserted to be associated with ACC, we lack an assessment of natural vs anthropogenic contributions. Here, we use five different large ensembles—including high-resolution ensembles (i.e., 0.5◦ horizontally)—to estimate the contribution of ACC to the probability of occurrence of the 2015–2019 event and the recent multi-decadal trend. The comparison of ensembles forced with natural and natural plus anthropogenic forcing suggests that the recent 40-year trend is likely associated with internal climate variability. However, the 2015–2019 rainfall deficit has been made more likely by ACC. The synthesis of the results from model ensembles supports the notion of a significant increase, by a factor of four, over the last century for the 2015–2019 meteorological drought to occur because of ACC. All the model results further suggest that, under intermediate and high emission scenarios, the likelihood of similar drought events will continue to increase substantially over the next decades.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipAlma Mater Studiorum - Universit`a di Bologna/[]/UNIBO/Italiaes_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.sourceClimatic Change, vol.168(3-4), pp.1-21es_ES
dc.subjectDroughtes_ES
dc.subjectCentral Americaes_ES
dc.subjectLarge ensemble simulationses_ES
dc.subjectClimate changees_ES
dc.titleNatural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American droughtes_ES
dc.typeartículo científico
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10584-021-03228-4
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)es_ES


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