The effects of El Niño on agricultural water balance in Guatemala

Abstract

More than half the population of Guatemala lives in rural areas and depends on subsistence agriculture for their well being. This region is vulnerable to many climatic events, one of which is El Niño. This study looks at the effects of El Nino on rainfall patterns at regional scales and specifically quantifies the effects on agricultural water balances in Guatemala. Analysis is focused on maize crops during the Primera growing season (May – Aug, May -Oct). The study builds on rainfall and water balance modeling techniques developed by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The results corroborate previous work, showing that there is a negative relationship between El Niño and rainfall, primarily on the Pacific side of the region and mainly during the months of August and September. The study also found that the related rainfall variations influence long-term (May - October) maize growing areas and could affect the start of the short-term Postrera season (August - October) by extending the Canícula (mid season dry period).